Fiscal and Enrollment Implications of Medicaid Continuous Coverage Requirement During and After the PHE Ends

A recently published Kaiser Family Foundation issue brief projects Medicaid enrollment growth through the end of fiscal year 2022. The brief examines how much of the enrollment growth can be attributed to baseline, or expected enrollment increases without the pandemic, and how much can be attributed to the continuous coverage requirement during the PHE. The brief explores the costs tied to PHE-related enrollment growth, estimates how much fiscal relief was provided to states through the enhanced federal Medicaid match rate (FMAP), and describes scenarios for enrollment going forward. The issue brief estimates that the fiscal relief from the enhanced FMAP will exceed the costs of the additional enrollment in every state, though the degree to which that is the case varies by state.