How Many People Might Lose Medicaid When States Unwind Continuous Enrollment?

A new Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) analysis estimates the number of people who could lose Medicaid during the unwinding period under three possible rates of Medicaid coverage loss, and shows for each illustrative rate, state-by-state coverage reductions among Medicaid children and adults. The KFF analysis uses a combination of enrollment data from the CMS Performance Indicator Project, Medicaid claims data, and some state-specific sources. In practice, rates of Medicaid coverage loss will vary across the states, depending on states’ approaches to the unwinding and the extent to which they engage in outreach and assistance activities to minimize disenrollment among people who are still eligible.