The Impact of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency Expiration on All Types of Health Coverage

In a new report, The Impact of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency Expiration on All Types of Health Coverage, the Urban Institute uses the latest avaliable administrative data on Medicaid enrollment and recent household survey data to estimate health coverage when the Medicaid continuous coverage requirement ends. The report estimates that if the PHE expires in April 2023, 18 million people will lose Medicaid coverage. Of these 18 million, 3.8 million people will be uninsured, and approximately one million people will enroll in non-group coverage, mainly marketplace coverage with premium tax credits (PTCs). The report further estimates that 1.5 million former Medicaid enrollees will be eligible for PTCs but will not enroll, due to barriers such as higher premiums than Medicaid or limited coordination between Medicaid agencies and the marketplaces. The Urban report discusses several state-specific factors that could affect coverage transitions after the PHE ends, such as differences in marketplace take-up and differences in the number of inappropriate disenrollments from Medicaid.