Congress is considering a variety of federal policy changes that will have significant impacts on the Medicaid program, widely expected to reduce enrollment and federal Medicaid funding to states. A variety of state-level estimates have been released, which can be helpful for states as they consider how various policy proposals might impact their Medicaid programs. This expert perspective highlights state agencies that have estimated and quantified the potential impacts of various proposals on enrollment and spending. SHVS will continue to regularly monitor published estimates from states and update this expert perspective.

The budget reconciliation process is continuing to move forward in Congress and includes developing proposals in the House to identify $880 billion in federal savings over the next ten years, the vast majority of which will need to come from Medicaid. To support states in informing and validating their own fiscal and program impact estimates of federal policy changes, Manatt Health has developed, with support and input from State Health and Value Strategies, a new toolkit providing national and state-by-state data on the potential impact of key cuts under consideration in Congress. This expert perspective provides an executive summary of the toolkit and has been updated to include estimates of state-by-state impacts of making work requirements a condition of Medicaid eligibility.

State updates as of April 18, 2025.